TEMPÊTE ET PRINCIPE DE PRECAUTION

 

 

                                                               LE PRINCIPE DE PRECAUTION ET LA TEMPÊTE

10 février 2009

 

 

 

La tempête annoncée n'a pas été à la hauteur des attentes des « réchauffistes » de tous poils qui se préparaient déjà à nous commenter ce nouvel épisode de l'apocalypse due à la folie des hommes.

Sur RTL , un vague gradé des pompiers, rescapé d'une nuit qui ne l'aura pas fait héros, nous explique que le danger a été surestimé et le justifie en invoquant ce cher, très cher principe de précaution.

D'une certaine manière , il n'a pas tort. Notre zébulonesque président, prompt à sauter sur tout ce qui réussit (enfin qui ne foire pas trop, par les temps qui courent) est tout à fait capable de décerveler comme le faisait le roi Ubu quand les choses ne se sont pas bien passées.

Il faut trouver des coupables pour apaiser les victimes.

 

Le problème est que tout cela a un coût. Si on doit mobiliser des moyens supplémentaires il faut bien les payer comme il faut payer les troupeaux entiers que l'on abat en cas de fièvre aphteuse ou les produits qui s'en vont à l'incinération si on a leur moindre doute sur leur qualité. La pétoche des temps nouveaux qui a remplacé la vertu des sans culottes ne se paie pas en assignats, du moins pas encore!

 

Jusque là, rien à dire:lorsque les citoyens souscrivent une assurance, ils sacrifient une somme d'argent pour parer un évènement dont la probabilité est peut être aléatoire mais dont les conséquences pourraient être extrêmement dommageables tant pour eux que pour des tiers. Il peut en être de même dans le cas présent: à deux différences près.

 

-Il serait bon que non pas la réalité du dommage mais à tout le moins sa probabilité soient connues ainsi que ses conséquences prévisibles. Personne ne serait prêt à souscrire une assurance pour éviter d'être mangé par un dragon car l'évènement est improbable. Personne sauf quelques cinglés ne s'assurerait contre l'apocalypse car le bénéfice en est nul. Il faudrait donc que ceux qui invoquent et mettent en oeuvre le principe de précaution soient en mesure de nous présenter un bilan coûts avantages des décisions qu'ils prennent.. L'invention du feu, si on en avait connu les dommages aurait été interdite mais il a évidemment été un apport essentiel pour l'humanité. Or, rien de tel n'est fait puisque la démarche de ceux qui invoquent le principe est totalement a-symétrique: ils mettent en avant le risque supposé, sans même craindre de délirer mais jamais les avantages, lesquels ils ne manquent quand même pas d'empocher: peu d'opposants à l'EPR se chauffent et s'éclairent à la bougie!

 

-En second lieu, si le principe de précaution est mis en oeuvre par des décideurs souvent peu courageux et désireux de se couvrir, il n'est pas seulement invoqué par des braillards panurgiens d'espèces diverses et variées. Il l'est aussi par tous ceux pour lesquels la mise en oeuvre du principe signifie un accroissement de leurs moyens et de leur pouvoir et les pompiers ne sont pas en reste.

Mais que l'on se rassure, tout va bien: les gouvernants qui laissent l'économie se ruiner nous promettent des lendemains qui chantent et ceux qui voudraient que l'on arrête tout pour s'assurer qu'ils avaient raison d'avoir peur peuvent défiler bras dessus- bras-dessous avec les pompiers pour le maintien de leur pouvoir d'achat!

 

Martin Kelenborn

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